Tools · Probability Forecaster
Stop asking for the number.Ask how likely it is.
Describe three drivers as ranges, type in your target, and let the model run five thousand possible years in your browser. In thirty seconds you have a realistic floor and ceiling, the odds of hitting plan, and one honest sentence about how brave your plan really is.
RUNS ENTIRELY IN YOUR BROWSER · NOTHING IS SAVED UNLESS YOU ASK US TO EMAIL IT
Describe the uncertainty
EBITDA = volume × price × gross margin, less fixed operating costs.
Change any input and the model re-runs automatically. Triangular uses your most-likely value as the peak; uniform treats the whole range as equally likely; normal centres on most likely with the range as ±2 standard deviations.
THE THIRTY-SECOND ANSWER
Running the first 5,000 futures…
P10 · floor
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P50 · midpoint
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P90 · ceiling
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P(hit target)
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P(loss)
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Bars between P10 and P90 are highlighted. Red bars are futures where EBITDA is negative. PLAN is your most-likely case with every driver at its most-likely value.
WHAT MOVES THE ANSWER · SWING AROUND THE PLAN, ONE DRIVER AT A TIME
The biggest swing at the top is the assumption worth arguing about. A tornado still flexes one driver at a time; the histogram above is what happens when they all move together.
Take it with you
How it works
Instead of one guess, run five thousand.
This is the idea from the Monte Carlo talk, applied to a year of your P&L. It is deliberately simple: three drivers, no correlation between them, no seasonality. That is enough to show the thesis. The real version of this for your business has correlated drivers, a monthly cash view and your actual history behind the ranges.
Describe the uncertainty
Give each driver a low, most likely and high instead of one number. Pick the shape if you have a view; triangular is a good default.
Run 5,000 futures
Each run draws every driver at once and works out the year. The histogram is the shape of everything the model thinks could happen.
Read the distribution
P10, P50 and P90 give you a defensible range. The target line turns "will we hit plan?" into a percentage. The plan line shows how brave your base case really is.
A thinking tool, not a crystal ball. The output is only as good as the ranges you feed it. · All tools · Training and resources